Answers to Chow’s Checkerplay Challenge #2


Scoring: Give yourself 2 points if you chose the top play of the rollout, and 0 points otherwise, unless indicated explicitly below. All rollouts were performed with eXtreme Gammon 1.21, Rockwell–Kazaross MET.

Problem 1: Money play with Jacoby

When this position came up OTB, I played 7/5 and looked around for a 3. But 24/22 is mandatory here, and then the only plausible 3 is 8/5, making the 5pt. I have found it to be a surprisingly good rule of thumb that if your opponent has an advanced anchor while you still have a 24pt anchor, then you must try to get an advanced anchor yourself. Here, White’s strong board would have made me balk at playing 24/22 8/5 and leaving a double shot even if I had seen that play, but actually, White’s strong board makes it even more urgent to get a better anchor.

In the variant position, I have changed the roll to 42, and anchoring on the 20pt comes out on top by a sizable margin (according to XGR+) despite many seemingly plausible alternatives.


+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2O2X1O2X '3X|   | '2X1X ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       3 2       |
| ' ' '2X1O4O|   |1O2O ' ' '3X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: White 136, Black 174
Position ID: Zs7CAQbQa/AAMg Match ID: cIkJAAAAAAAA

1.Rollout124/22 8/5eq: -0.526
Player:
Opponent:
40.21% (G:9.01% B:0.45%)
59.79% (G:27.30% B:1.70%)
Conf: ±0.026 (-0.552...-0.500)
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
2.Rollout17/5 6/3eq: -0.640 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
38.12% (G:8.54% B:0.45%)
61.88% (G:27.08% B:2.92%)
Conf: ±0.023 (-0.663...-0.617)
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 7/5eq: -0.662 (-0.135)
Player:
Opponent:
37.50% (G:7.82% B:0.38%)
62.50% (G:29.23% B:3.41%)
Conf: ±0.030 (-0.692...-0.632)
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
4.Rollout124/22 6/3eq: -0.689 (-0.163)
Player:
Opponent:
38.18% (G:7.49% B:0.41%)
61.82% (G:32.69% B:2.22%)
Conf: ±0.034 (-0.723...-0.655)
Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
5.Rollout124/22 5/2eq: -0.737 (-0.210)
Player:
Opponent:
34.52% (G:6.68% B:0.26%)
65.48% (G:25.51% B:1.51%)
Conf: ±0.025 (-0.762...-0.712)
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

















Variant:

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2O2X1O2X '3X|   | '2X1X ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 2       |
| ' ' '2X1O4O|   |1O2O ' ' '3X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: gnubg 136, tchow 174
Position ID: Zs7CAQbQa/AAMg Match ID: cAkKAAAAAAAA

1.XG Roller+24/20 22/20eq: -0.544
Player:
Opponent:
40.33% (G:8.55% B:0.38%)
59.67% (G:26.38% B:1.39%)
2.XG Roller+22/18 7/5eq: -0.610 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
38.50% (G:8.42% B:0.37%)
61.50% (G:24.63% B:2.03%)
3.XG Roller+24/22 7/3eq: -0.617 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
38.00% (G:7.97% B:0.35%)
62.00% (G:24.51% B:1.39%)
4.XG Roller+13/9 7/5eq: -0.676 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
37.83% (G:8.10% B:0.34%)
62.17% (G:27.20% B:2.97%)
5.XG Roller+24/22 24/20eq: -0.712 (-0.169)
Player:
Opponent:
38.21% (G:7.33% B:0.31%)
61.79% (G:29.18% B:1.65%)
6.XG Roller+7/5 6/2eq: -0.735 (-0.191)
Player:
Opponent:
35.50% (G:8.05% B:0.32%)
64.50% (G:25.71% B:2.40%)
7.XG Roller+24/20 7/5eq: -0.788 (-0.244)
Player:
Opponent:
36.04% (G:8.14% B:0.35%)
63.96% (G:31.02% B:2.15%)
8.XG Roller+7/3 5/3eq: -0.839 (-0.295)
Player:
Opponent:
33.88% (G:7.04% B:0.26%)
66.12% (G:26.00% B:2.23%)
9.XG Roller+24/22 6/2eq: -0.843 (-0.300)
Player:
Opponent:
35.93% (G:7.21% B:0.31%)
64.07% (G:29.89% B:2.16%)
10.XG Roller+24/22 13/9eq: -0.867 (-0.324)
Player:
Opponent:
37.86% (G:7.09% B:0.34%)
62.14% (G:34.58% B:3.35%)
11.XG Roller+13/7eq: -0.869 (-0.326)
Player:
Opponent:
35.91% (G:6.97% B:0.30%)
64.09% (G:30.23% B:3.60%)
12.XG Roller+24/22 5/1eq: -0.883 (-0.339)
Player:
Opponent:
32.32% (G:6.33% B:0.21%)
67.68% (G:24.10% B:1.44%)
13.XG Roller+22/16* eq: -0.927 (-0.384)
Player:
Opponent:
36.83% (G:6.99% B:0.30%)
63.17% (G:32.55% B:4.78%)






























Problem 2: 4 point match, White 0, Black 0

Pay now or pay later? Answer: Both!

This position was obtained by tinkering with a position that Grunty posted on rec.games.backgammon. Though White’s board will get stronger by the minute, leaving a double direct shot by making the 9pt right away rolls out as a double whopper. Given that, 13/4 would seem to be the natural move, but the rollout favors the unusual move 13/9 7/2 by a clear margin.

In the variant position, I have strengthened White’s board.


+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| ' ' '2X '5X| 2 | '3X ' '2O1O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 |   |       5 4       |
|2O1O1O1O2O2O|   |3O2X ' ' '3X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: White 135, Black 95
Position ID: mM/BYQCrtgMNAA Match ID: QYmSAAAAAAAA

1.Rollout113/9 7/2eq: +0.319
Player:
Opponent:
69.52% (G:9.51% B:0.51%)
30.48% (G:3.88% B:0.31%)
Conf: ±0.005 (+0.314...+0.324)
Duration: 6 hours 56 minutes
2.Rollout113/4eq: +0.257 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
68.95% (G:5.67% B:0.31%)
31.05% (G:3.25% B:0.16%)
Conf: ±0.005 (+0.252...+0.262)
Duration: 5 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout17/3 7/2eq: +0.254 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
67.08% (G:9.40% B:0.38%)
32.92% (G:3.78% B:0.23%)
Conf: ±0.005 (+0.249...+0.259)
Duration: 4 hours 36 minutes
4.Rollout214/9 13/9eq: +0.124 (-0.196)
Player:
Opponent:
64.00% (G:10.94% B:0.60%)
36.00% (G:4.44% B:0.43%)
Conf: ±0.009 (+0.115...+0.133)
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

















Variant:

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| '2X '2X '3X| 2 | '3X ' '2O1O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 |   |       5 4       |
|2O1O1O1O2O2O|   |3O2X ' ' '3X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: gnubg 127, tchow 95
Position ID: Zs7BYQCrtgMNAA Match ID: QYmSAAAAAAAA

1.Rollout113/4eq: +0.260
Player:
Opponent:
69.06% (G:3.94% B:0.40%)
30.94% (G:3.00% B:0.22%)
Conf: ±0.010 (+0.250...+0.270)
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.Rollout113/9 7/2eq: +0.248 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
67.14% (G:7.71% B:0.50%)
32.86% (G:4.30% B:0.36%)
Conf: ±0.011 (+0.237...+0.259)
Duration: 47 minutes 34 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply









Problem 3: Money play

At first glance, this one looks like a position that one might be able to calculate. A hit and a dance is a D/P, for 44% wins; if we toss in a few freak wins after getting hit back, we get winning chances in the mid to high 40's after 20/12*. If we don't hit, then there are two plausible plans: closing the board, or stepping out with 20/18(2) and half-closing the board with 8/6. The latter play (my choice OTB) generates more shots because it threatens both blots directly, but since it doesn't close the board, the shots are not quite as deadly. Estimating the winning chances in these two scenarios looks feasible (though time-consuming to do over the board); however, the real question is, how many gammons and backgammons do we lose after 20/12*?

It's clear we lose a ton of gammons but I'll be darned if I could estimate them OTB. In this particular position you might arrive at 20/12* anyway even with a not-so-good estimate, because the difference in equity is so large. However, if we change the score to 5a5a (see second rollout below), thereby elevating the gammon value, the plays get closer and the calculation seems very difficult. By the way, eXtreme Gammon version 1.21 doesn't even register 20/12* as one of its top 32 plays at 5a5a, and I had to do the old "Setup -> Play from position" trick to force it to analyze the move.

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|3X2X3X2X2O3X|   | '1X ' ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 |   |       2 2       |
|1O2O2O2O3O1O| 2 | '1O ' '1O1X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: White 63, Black 99
Position ID: t5sTBABtu0QAAw Match ID: UQkJAAAAAAAA

1.Rollout120/12* eq: -0.357
Player:
Opponent:
43.01% (G:8.40% B:0.21%)
56.99% (G:41.45% B:3.29%)
Conf: ±0.007 (-0.364...-0.350)
Duration: 13 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout111/9 8/6 5/1eq: -0.498 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent:
24.02% (G:0.49% B:0.01%)
75.98% (G:0.83% B:0.00%)
Conf: ±0.003 (-0.501...-0.495)
Duration: 21 minutes 51 seconds
3.Rollout120/18(2) 11/9 8/6eq: -0.504 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
22.48% (G:1.11% B:0.02%)
77.52% (G:1.25% B:0.03%)
Conf: ±0.003 (-0.507...-0.501)
Duration: 10 minutes 13 seconds
4.Rollout120/18(2) 8/6 5/3eq: -0.507 (-0.149)
Player:
Opponent:
22.21% (G:1.03% B:0.02%)
77.79% (G:1.43% B:0.03%)
Conf: ±0.003 (-0.510...-0.504)
Duration: 8 minutes 32 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply














At a score of 5-away/5-away:

1.Rollout120/12* eq: -0.470
Player:
Opponent:
43.01% (G:8.42% B:0.28%)
56.99% (G:41.35% B:3.18%)
Conf: ±0.008 (-0.478...-0.462)
Duration: 12 minutes 50 seconds
2.Rollout111/9 8/6 5/1eq: -0.496 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
23.98% (G:0.52% B:0.01%)
76.02% (G:0.83% B:0.00%)
Conf: ±0.003 (-0.499...-0.493)
Duration: 22 minutes 54 seconds
3.Rollout120/18(2) 11/9 8/6eq: -0.501 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
22.44% (G:1.10% B:0.02%)
77.56% (G:1.24% B:0.03%)
Conf: ±0.003 (-0.504...-0.498)
Duration: 10 minutes 21 seconds
4.Rollout120/18(2) 8/6 5/3eq: -0.505 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
22.16% (G:0.99% B:0.03%)
77.84% (G:1.40% B:0.03%)
Conf: ±0.003 (-0.508...-0.502)
Duration: 8 minutes 27 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply














Problem 4: 1 point match

It is hard to steel oneself to play an ugly move like 8/6 2/1 when the more natural 6/3* is available, but White’s board demands respect, even at DMP. In the variant, White’s board has been weakened and the top two plays roll out in a dead heat.

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| '2X2X2X2X2X|   |1X1X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       2 1       |
|2O2O1X ' '4O|   |2X3O ' ' ' '|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: White 113, Black 106
Position ID: tm0FYAgbnoMHAA Match ID: cAklAAAAAAAA

1.Rollout18/6 2/1eq: -0.049
Player:
Opponent:
47.55% (G:3.86% B:0.02%)
52.45% (G:10.86% B:0.17%)
Conf: ±0.005 (-0.054...-0.044)
Duration: 52 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout16/3* eq: -0.109 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
44.55% (G:4.09% B:0.04%)
55.45% (G:17.91% B:0.46%)
Conf: ±0.005 (-0.114...-0.104)
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply









Variant:

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X '2X2X2X2X|   |1X1X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       1 2       |
|2O2O1X ' '4O|   |2X3O ' ' ' '|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: gnubg 111, tchow 106
Position ID: s20FYAgbnoMHAA Match ID: cIkoAAAAAAAA

1.Rollout18/6 2/1eq: -0.045
Player:
Opponent:
47.74% (G:4.32% B:0.04%)
52.26% (G:10.66% B:0.14%)
Conf: ±0.005 (-0.050...-0.040)
Duration: 49 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout16/3* eq: -0.045
Player:
Opponent:
47.74% (G:4.94% B:0.07%)
52.26% (G:17.23% B:0.24%)
Conf: ±0.005 (-0.050...-0.040)
Duration: 57 minutes 00 second
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply









Problem 5: Money play

Slot boldly or play safe? If we slot then it is fairly clear that 8/3 7/4 is best since it diversifies our numbers to cover and escape. This diversification is important; see the variant position below, and compare the absolute equity of 8/3 7/4 (+0.332±0.011) in the variant position with the absolute equity of 8/5 7/2 (+0.348±0.010) in the original position. It is clear we gain a lot if the slot works but we also lose big if it does not. I played safe here and the rollout says it was a whopper.

Scoring: Give yourself 1 point if you chose the imaginative play 8/3 6/3.


+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| '2X2O2X2X2X| 2 | '3X1X ' ' '|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|                 |   |       5 3       |
|2O2O '2O2O2O|   |1O2O ' ' '2X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: White 118, Black 103
Position ID: ZpsLA0CbbQ0ADA Match ID: QYkOAAAAAAAA

1.Rollout18/3 7/4eq: +0.461
Player:
Opponent:
62.43% (G:43.48% B:0.34%)
37.57% (G:8.83% B:0.38%)
Conf: ±0.009 (+0.452...+0.470)
Duration: 30 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: +0.423 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
61.51% (G:42.01% B:0.27%)
38.49% (G:10.85% B:0.47%)
Conf: ±0.009 (+0.414...+0.432)
Duration: 25 minutes 45 seconds
3.Rollout18/5 8/3eq: +0.406 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
60.86% (G:41.60% B:0.33%)
39.14% (G:8.49% B:0.39%)
Conf: ±0.010 (+0.396...+0.416)
Duration: 20 minutes 06 seconds
4.Rollout18/5 7/2eq: +0.348 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:
61.40% (G:35.26% B:0.24%)
38.60% (G:7.79% B:0.34%)
Conf: ±0.010 (+0.338...+0.358)
Duration: 25 minutes 39 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply














Variant:

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| '2X2O2X2X2X| 2 | '3X1X ' ' '|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|                 |   |       5 3       |
|2O2O '2O2O2O|   |2O1O ' ' '2X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: gnubg 118, tchow 102
Position ID: ZpsLA0CbbQsADA Match ID: QYkOAAAAAAAA

1.Rollout18/3 7/4eq: +0.332
Player:
Opponent:
59.19% (G:39.19% B:0.28%)
40.81% (G:9.14% B:0.45%)
Conf: ±0.011 (+0.321...+0.343)
Duration: 25 minutes 34 seconds
2.Rollout17/4 7/2eq: +0.331 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
60.89% (G:34.92% B:0.24%)
39.11% (G:7.88% B:0.33%)
Conf: ±0.011 (+0.320...+0.342)
Duration: 32 minutes 03 seconds
3.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: +0.327 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
59.34% (G:36.65% B:0.21%)
40.66% (G:6.57% B:0.22%)
Conf: ±0.010 (+0.317...+0.337)
Duration: 21 minutes 10 seconds
4.Rollout18/5 7/2eq: +0.284 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
59.61% (G:33.36% B:0.25%)
40.39% (G:8.13% B:0.29%)
Conf: ±0.011 (+0.273...+0.295)
Duration: 31 minutes 13 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply














Problem 6: Gammon go (2 point match, White 1, Black 0, Crawford)

Some might be tricked by the score into hitting, but hitting can't be better than making a four-point board. What I found surprising was that downgrading the 4pt to the 3pt and keeping the 8pt came out ahead of making the solid four-prime. Generally, a solid prime is much better than a broken one. However, here White has a just a single checker back and we are not really trying to prime it; we're hoping to attack it by hitting it next turn. The 8pt-6pt-5pt-3pt configuration is better than the four-prime for this purpose; if we make the solid four-prime, then White hops out giving us a single direct shot with 66 65 63 62 61 51 and escapes entirely with 64. If instead we play 6/5(2) 4/3(2), then White hops out with 62 54 53 52 and escapes entirely only with 55; also it gives White a bad 61, and gives ourselves more good hitting rolls.

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| ' '2X1X '4X|   |2O2X ' ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       1 1       |
|2O1X '2O '4O|   | '2O ' ' '5X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: White 138, Black 125
Position ID: LM/gAxBjnsHBAA Match ID: 8IlEABAAAAAA


1.Rollout16/5(2) 4/3(2)eq: +0.862
Player:
Opponent:
64.63% (G:28.47% B:1.03%)
35.37% (G:9.16% B:0.89%)
Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.852...+0.872)
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
2.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.751 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
61.08% (G:26.44% B:1.03%)
38.92% (G:8.80% B:0.78%)
Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.741...+0.761)
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
3.Rollout18/7(2) 6/5(2)eq: +0.750 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
63.27% (G:24.24% B:0.87%)
36.73% (G:7.80% B:0.66%)
Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.740...+0.760)
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
4.Rollout16/2* eq: +0.713 (-0.149)
Player:
Opponent:
61.52% (G:24.13% B:0.91%)
38.48% (G:10.15% B:1.12%)
Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.703...+0.723)
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
5.Rollout14/2*(2) eq: +0.644 (-0.218)
Player:
Opponent:
61.55% (G:20.67% B:0.81%)
38.45% (G:7.60% B:0.96%)
Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.635...+0.653)
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

















Problem 7: Money play

At some point during a blitz, the "local ammunition" starts to run low and we face a tricky decision. Do we keep rushing the nearest available ammunition forwards to try to continue attacking, at the risk of overextending ourselves? Or do we start consolidating by moving our rear checkers into a better position so that we retain a strong advantage even if the blitz fails?

Here it is tempting to keep trying to close out the checker by playing 13/9, but according to the rollout, anything but 20/16 18/16 is a whopper.

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| ' '2X '2O4X| 2 |1O4X ' '2X1O|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|                 |   |       4 2       |
|2O2O2O '2O2O|   |1O ' ' ' '2X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: White 135, Black 112
Position ID: jOcxA0DbbIEgAw Match ID: QQkKAAAAAAAA


1.Rollout120/16 18/16eq: +0.860
Player:
Opponent:
77.88% (G:42.81% B:0.28%)
22.12% (G:3.94% B:0.25%)
Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.853...+0.867)
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
2.Rollout120/16 7/5eq: +0.761 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:
74.91% (G:41.13% B:0.31%)
25.09% (G:5.25% B:0.35%)
Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.754...+0.768)
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
3.Rollout120/18 20/16eq: +0.736 (-0.124)
Player:
Opponent:
74.34% (G:39.89% B:0.20%)
25.66% (G:4.92% B:0.31%)
Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.729...+0.743)
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
4.Rollout120/16 13/11eq: +0.725 (-0.135)
Player:
Opponent:
73.94% (G:40.96% B:0.27%)
26.06% (G:5.87% B:0.54%)
Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.718...+0.732)
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
5.Rollout118/16 13/9eq: +0.708 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent:
72.92% (G:40.21% B:0.21%)
27.08% (G:3.95% B:0.26%)
Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.701...+0.715)
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
6.Rollout113/9 7/5eq: +0.610 (-0.250)
Player:
Opponent:
70.55% (G:36.24% B:0.24%)
29.45% (G:4.27% B:0.21%)
Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.603...+0.617)
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
7.Rollout113/7eq: +0.588 (-0.272)
Player:
Opponent:
70.44% (G:34.68% B:0.22%)
29.56% (G:4.74% B:0.27%)
Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.580...+0.596)
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
8.Rollout120/18 13/9eq: +0.581 (-0.279)
Player:
Opponent:
70.00% (G:35.60% B:0.18%)
30.00% (G:5.29% B:0.31%)
Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.574...+0.588)
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply























Problem 8: Gammon save (2 point match, White 0, Black 1, Crawford)

I threw this one in for anti-QF purposes. It's gammon save so the natural thing to do is to play safe, and the top play of the rollout is to play safe. (Clearing the 7pt is better than clearing the 8pt because we might still want to attack next turn.)

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X1X2X2X2X4X|   | ' ' '1X ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       6 5       |
|1O '2O1X2O4O|   |2O2O '2O ' '|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: White 83, Black 91
Position ID: a9tDAASZvc0AAA Match ID: 8AlXAAAACAAA


1.Rollout17/2 7/1eq: +0.119
Player:
Opponent:
56.87% (G:1.24% B:0.00%)
43.13% (G:0.93% B:0.02%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.116...+0.122)
Duration: 6 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout110/4* 6/1eq: +0.064 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
66.46% (G:5.26% B:0.07%)
33.54% (G:13.28% B:0.75%)
Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.058...+0.070)
Duration: 15 minutes 21 seconds
3.Rollout18/3 8/2eq: +0.030 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
52.59% (G:0.86% B:0.01%)
47.41% (G:1.10% B:0.04%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.027...+0.033)
Duration: 5 minutes 24 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply












Problem 9: 1 point match

This is a tricky decision since we haven't gained enough pips to just win the race, and we're forced to play a lot of pips and can't hold on to all our defensive assets. The 6-away point is usually very important for containment (recall Problem 6 above), but our rearmost checker is also valuable, and there's no good way to hold on to both. I decided to hold on to the 6-away point, but the rollout disapproves. Part of what's going on is that uprooting the 6-away point still gives us the 4pt as compensation, which will be very valuable if we subsequently hit White's blot.

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2X2X2X4X2X2X|   | ' '1O ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 5       |
| '3O1X '2O3O|   |2O '2O1O '1O|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: White 72, Black 104
Position ID: 294GAAiO3SwhAA Match ID: cIk2AAAAAAAA


1.Rollout112/7 10/5 9/4(2)eq: -0.058
Player:
Opponent:
47.10% (G:1.98% B:0.03%)
52.90% (G:1.59% B:0.01%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.061...-0.055)
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
2.Rollout110/5 9/4(2) 6/1eq: -0.118 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
44.08% (G:1.57% B:0.01%)
55.92% (G:7.59% B:0.06%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.121...-0.115)
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
3.Rollout116/1 10/5eq: -0.125 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
43.73% (G:1.22% B:0.07%)
56.27% (G:5.44% B:0.06%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.128...-0.122)
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
4.Rollout116/6 12/7 10/5eq: -0.127 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
43.64% (G:1.33% B:0.02%)
56.36% (G:1.61% B:0.01%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.130...-0.124)
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
5.Rollout116/11 12/2 10/5eq: -0.154 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
42.28% (G:1.16% B:0.01%)
57.72% (G:3.56% B:0.01%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.157...-0.151)
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
6.Rollout112/2 9/4(2)eq: -0.158 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:
42.09% (G:1.22% B:0.01%)
57.91% (G:4.93% B:0.03%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.161...-0.155)
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
7.Rollout116/11 10/5 9/4(2)eq: -0.159 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
42.04% (G:1.67% B:0.03%)
57.96% (G:4.31% B:0.01%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.162...-0.156)
Duration: 56 minutes 47 seconds
8.Rollout112/7 9/4(2) 6/1eq: -0.196 (-0.138)
Player:
Opponent:
40.22% (G:1.28% B:0.02%)
59.78% (G:6.85% B:0.05%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.199...-0.193)
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
9.Rollout116/1 6/1eq: -0.200 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:
39.98% (G:1.14% B:0.01%)
60.02% (G:8.87% B:0.05%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.203...-0.197)
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
10.Rollout112/2 10/5 6/1eq: -0.203 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:
39.86% (G:0.84% B:0.00%)
60.14% (G:4.74% B:0.04%)
Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.207...-0.199)
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
11.Rollout116/11 12/7 10/5 6/1eq: -0.204 (-0.146)
Player:
Opponent:
39.79% (G:1.61% B:0.01%)
60.21% (G:5.13% B:0.02%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.207...-0.201)
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
12.Rollout116/1 12/7eq: -0.215 (-0.157)
Player:
Opponent:
39.23% (G:1.31% B:0.01%)
60.77% (G:5.99% B:0.01%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.218...-0.212)
Duration: 55 minutes 47 seconds
13.Rollout116/6 9/4(2)eq: -0.236 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:
38.21% (G:1.33% B:0.02%)
61.79% (G:4.59% B:0.02%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.239...-0.233)
Duration: 59 minutes 00 second
14.Rollout116/6 12/2eq: -0.242 (-0.184)
Player:
Opponent:
37.92% (G:0.80% B:0.01%)
62.08% (G:4.63% B:0.01%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.245...-0.239)
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
15.Rollout116/11 12/7 9/4(2)eq: -0.265 (-0.207)
Player:
Opponent:
36.74% (G:1.40% B:0.02%)
63.26% (G:5.35% B:0.01%)
Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.268...-0.262)
Duration: 43 minutes 51 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply







































Problem 10: Money play

For rollouts and discussion of the deleted position, click on this cached BGOnline post and scroll to the bottom.



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