Robertie Position 322

Note that after either 5/3(3) 2/off or 5/3(3) 4/2, Black has six rolls next turn that leave a shot. David Rockwell has given a very nice explanation of why 5/3(3) 2/off is the right play here.

Compare this position with Position 434.

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 R 5/3(3) 2/off +1.393
 
0.8580.6360.110-0.1420.0000.000 +1.462 +1.393
0.0010.0010.001-0.0010.0000.000 0.003 0.004
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868926399 and quasi-random dice  
  Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32  
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 R 5/3(3) 4/2 +1.377 ( -0.016)
 
0.8660.6230.085-0.1340.0000.000 +1.440 +1.377
0.0010.0010.001-0.0010.0000.000 0.002 0.003
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868926399 and quasi-random dice  
  Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32  
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 R 5/3 4/off 2/off +1.311 ( -0.082)
 
0.8330.6250.102-0.1670.0000.000 +1.393 +1.311
0.0010.0010.001-0.0010.0000.000 0.003 0.004
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868926399 and quasi-random dice  
  Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32  
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]