Robertie Position 271

Back in 2009, my GNU rollout for this position put Robertie’s play of 24/22 8/3* in first place by a small margin, so I did not bother posting the rollout here. In May 2015, I received an email from a reader saying that 22/15 came out on top of his rollouts. So I performed a 5184-trial 3-ply/XGR rollout using eXtreme Gammon version 2. The results are shown below. XG says that the two plays are essentially tied for first place. So it is not much of a disagreement with Robertie, but having done the rollout, I figured I might as well post it.

Rollout¹

24/22 8/3*

eq: -0.211

Player:
Opponent:

45.66% (G:13.66% B:0.64%)
54.34% (G:18.85% B:1.17%)

Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.220...-0.202) - [66.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute

Rollout¹

22/15

eq: -0.213 (-0.003)

Player:
Opponent:

45.15% (G:12.42% B:0.51%)
54.85% (G:16.45% B:0.97%)

Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.222...-0.205) - [34.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release