Robertie Postion 32

My rollout and Stick’s rollout are basically in agreement on the relative ordering of the plays, but interestingly, the absolute equities differ by more than you might expect. Here is my rollout:

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 R bar/21* 13/7 +0.172
 
0.5320.1690.010-0.4680.1250.008 +0.110 +0.172
0.0010.0010.001-0.0010.0010.000 0.004 0.009
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868728538 and quasi-random dice  
  Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32  
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 R bar/21* 24/18 +0.128 ( -0.044)
 
0.5260.1490.008-0.4740.1240.006 +0.079 +0.128
0.0010.0010.001-0.0010.0010.000 0.003 0.007
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868728538 and quasi-random dice  
  Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32  
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 R bar/21*/15 +0.116 ( -0.056)
 
0.5260.1550.008-0.4740.1310.008 +0.077 +0.116
0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.003 0.008
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868728538 and quasi-random dice  
  Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32  
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  


And here is Stick’s rollout:

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 R bar/21* 13/7 +0.148
 
0.5300.1670.007-0.4700.1260.009 +0.099 +0.148
0.0010.0010.001-0.0010.0010.000 0.003 0.008
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 838415338 and quasi-random dice  
  Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16  
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 R bar/21* 24/18 +0.114 ( -0.034)
 
0.5260.1480.007-0.4740.1240.006 +0.078 +0.114
0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.003 0.008
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 838415338 and quasi-random dice  
  Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16  
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 R bar/21*/15 +0.114 ( -0.034)
 
0.5260.1530.008-0.4740.1280.008 +0.076 +0.114
0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.003 0.007
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 838415338 and quasi-random dice  
  Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16  
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]