This will be a long post because I'm posting all the rollouts + positions. Also, a couple of the positions I've included variations to show that the spares spread evenly across the highest points is far from the optimal position. For example, if you get to the coup classique and have a closed board this is obviously much worse than having a 6 prime with time to try to slot points and pick up the second checker. You are only 21.5% if you manage to close 1 checker out and the opponent's only remaining checker is on his ace point. However, if you a more optimal position with a 6 prime extending from the 9pt to the 3pt for example, your winning chances shoot up to over 50%! If you do manage to pick up and close out both checkers your win % is now 68%, reference rollouts also included at the end of this post.
This is also important if you ever have to play out the game. You should try playing some of these out to see how you should best go about picking up the second checker. For money you should beaver if your opponent has your one checker closed out and you already have 8 men off. The point of last take for money is when you have 5 checkers off.
The table below is a summary of one checker closed out at dmp according to XG 4 ply rollouts with X amount of checkers off for your opponent and assuming you have the 'perfect spare distribution' of 654.
Number Off 
Win Percentage 
0 Off 
98% 
1 Off 
96% 
2 Off 
94% 
3 Off 
90% 
4 Off 
85% 
5 Off 
78% 
6 Off 
70% 
7 Off 
61% 
8 Off 
51% 
9 Off 
42% 
10 Off 
32% 
11 Off 
24% 
12 Off 
17% 
13 Off 
22% 
14 Off 
8% 
1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: +0.955 
 Player: Opponent:  97.76% (G:4.65% B:0.05%) 2.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.000 (+0.955...+0.955) Duration: 25.4 seconds 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 828585 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: +0.915 
 Player: Opponent:  95.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 4.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.914...+0.916) Duration: 38.7 seconds 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52594344 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: +0.873 
 Player: Opponent:  93.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 6.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.872...+0.874) Duration: 32.5 seconds 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 24390711 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: +0.791 
 Player: Opponent:  89.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 10.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.790...+0.792) Duration: 46.0 seconds 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 26184277 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: +0.695 
 Player: Opponent:  84.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 15.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.694...+0.696) Duration: 51.3 seconds 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 83684680 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: +0.560 
 Player: Opponent:  78.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 22.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.559...+0.561) Duration: 55.7 seconds 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88250558 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: +0.395 
 Player: Opponent:  69.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 30.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.394...+0.396) Duration: 1 minute 08 seconds 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 63114713 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: +0.221 
 Player: Opponent:  61.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 38.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.220...+0.222) Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 57773547 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: +0.013 
 Player: Opponent:  50.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 49.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.012...+0.014) Duration: 28 minutes 48 seconds 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 6736207 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: 0.158 
 Player: Opponent:  42.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 57.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.001 (0.159...0.157) Duration: 6 minutes 03 seconds 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17566928 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: 0.362 
 Player: Opponent:  31.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 68.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.002 (0.364...0.360) Duration: 7 minutes 26 seconds 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 10519013 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: 0.515 
 Player: Opponent:  24.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 75.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.001 (0.516...0.514) Duration: 11 minutes 36 seconds 


^{1} 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51456635 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: 0.416 
 Player: Opponent:  29.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 70.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.002 (0.418...0.414) Duration: 35 minutes 39 seconds 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 67817185 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: 0.656 
 Player: Opponent:  17.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 82.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.001 (0.657...0.655) Duration: 12 minutes 27 seconds 


^{1} 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 57773547 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: 0.569 
 Player: Opponent:  21.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 78.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.002 (0.571...0.567) Duration: 5 hours 01 minute 


^{1} 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 89580768 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/23* 23/20  eq: +0.014 
 Player: Opponent:  50.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 49.29% (G:15.09% B:9.97%)  Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.008...+0.020) Duration: 15 hours 39 minutes 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 47231330 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/23* 4/1  eq: 0.107 
 Player: Opponent:  44.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 55.37% (G:23.72% B:14.61%)  Conf: ± 0.005 (0.112...0.102) Duration: 13 hours 36 minutes 


^{1} 6480 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 54376264 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: 0.831 
 Player: Opponent:  8.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 91.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.001 (0.832...0.830) Duration: 6 minutes 58 seconds 


^{1} 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 24983242 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

1.  Rollout^{1}  7/4  eq: +0.363 
 Player: Opponent:  68.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 31.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf: ± 0.002 (+0.361...+0.365) Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply
