BGonline.org Forums

4 Ply Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 9 October 2010, at 4:07 a.m.

In Response To: RO using XGRoller+ (eXtreme Gammon)

This will be a long post because I'm posting all the rollouts + positions. Also, a couple of the positions I've included variations to show that the spares spread evenly across the highest points is far from the optimal position. For example, if you get to the coup classique and have a closed board this is obviously much worse than having a 6 prime with time to try to slot points and pick up the second checker. You are only 21.5% if you manage to close 1 checker out and the opponent's only remaining checker is on his ace point. However, if you a more optimal position with a 6 prime extending from the 9pt to the 3pt for example, your winning chances shoot up to over 50%! If you do manage to pick up and close out both checkers your win % is now 68%, reference rollouts also included at the end of this post.

This is also important if you ever have to play out the game. You should try playing some of these out to see how you should best go about picking up the second checker. For money you should beaver if your opponent has your one checker closed out and you already have 8 men off. The point of last take for money is when you have 5 checkers off.

The table below is a summary of one checker closed out at dmp according to XG 4 ply rollouts with X amount of checkers off for your opponent and assuming you have the 'perfect spare distribution' of 654.

Number Off	Win Percentage
0 Off	98%
1 Off	96%
2 Off	94%
3 Off	90%
4 Off	85%
5 Off	78%
6 Off	70%
7 Off	61%
8 Off	51%
9 Off	42%
10 Off	32%
11 Off	24%
12 Off	17%
13 Off	22%
14 Off	8%

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 46 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA---------------gg-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: +0.955
	Player: Opponent: 97.76% (G:4.65% B:0.05%) 2.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.000 (+0.955...+0.955) Duration: 25.4 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 828585 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 44 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA---------------fg-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: +0.915
	Player: Opponent: 95.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 4.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.914...+0.916) Duration: 38.7 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52594344 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 43 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA---------------ff-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: +0.873
	Player: Opponent: 93.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 6.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.872...+0.874) Duration: 32.5 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 24390711 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 41 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA---------------ef-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: +0.791
	Player: Opponent: 89.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 10.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.790...+0.792) Duration: 46.0 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 26184277 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 40 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA---------------ee-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: +0.695
	Player: Opponent: 84.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 15.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.694...+0.696) Duration: 51.3 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 83684680 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 38 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA---------------de-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: +0.560
	Player: Opponent: 78.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 22.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.559...+0.561) Duration: 55.7 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88250558 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 37 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA---------------dd-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: +0.395
	Player: Opponent: 69.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 30.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.394...+0.396) Duration: 1 minute 08 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 63114713 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 35 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA---------------cd-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: +0.221
	Player: Opponent: 61.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 38.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.220...+0.222) Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 57773547 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 34 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA---------------cc-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: +0.013
	Player: Opponent: 50.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 49.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.012...+0.014) Duration: 28 minutes 48 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 6736207 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 32 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA---------------bc-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: -0.158
	Player: Opponent: 42.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 57.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (-0.159...-0.157) Duration: 6 minutes 03 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17566928 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 31 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA---------------bb-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: -0.362
	Player: Opponent: 31.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 68.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.364...-0.360) Duration: 7 minutes 26 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 10519013 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 28 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA----------------c-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: -0.515
	Player: Opponent: 24.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 75.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (-0.516...-0.514) Duration: 11 minutes 36 seconds
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51456635 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 29 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA---------------ab-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: -0.416
	Player: Opponent: 29.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 70.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.418...-0.414) Duration: 35 minutes 39 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 67817185 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 27 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA----------------b-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: -0.656
	Player: Opponent: 17.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 82.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (-0.657...-0.655) Duration: 12 minutes 27 seconds
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 57773547 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 26 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA----------------a-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: -0.569
	Player: Opponent: 21.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 78.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.571...-0.567) Duration: 5 hours 01 minute
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 89580768 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 3 1 point match pip: 99 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=--ABBBCBB--------------aaA:0:0:1:23:0:0:0:1:10
to play 23

1.	Rollout1	Bar/23* 23/20	eq: +0.014
	Player: Opponent: 50.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 49.29% (G:15.09% B:9.97%) Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.008...+0.020) Duration: 15 hours 39 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 47231330 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 3 1 point match pip: 100 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBCB-------A-------aaA:0:0:1:23:0:0:0:1:10
to play 23

1.	Rollout1	Bar/23* 4/1	eq: -0.107
	Player: Opponent: 44.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 55.37% (G:23.72% B:14.61%) Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.112...-0.102) Duration: 13 hours 36 minutes
1 6480 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 54376264 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 25 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBCCA------------------:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: -0.831
	Player: Opponent: 8.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 91.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.001 (-0.832...-0.830) Duration: 6 minutes 58 seconds
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 24983242 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 50 1 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=bBBBBCCA------------------:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	7/4	eq: +0.363
	Player: Opponent: 68.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 31.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.002 (+0.361...+0.365) Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 5 ply

Messages In This Thread

• Winning percentages with one man closed out
  David -- Thursday, 7 October 2010, at 8:06 p.m.
  • Michael's 432 Rule
    Tom Keith -- Thursday, 7 October 2010, at 8:27 p.m.
  • Winning percentages with one man closed out
    Petter Bengtsson -- Thursday, 7 October 2010, at 9:05 p.m.
  • Winning percentages with one man closed out
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 7 October 2010, at 9:12 p.m.
  • Winning percentages with one man closed out
    Stick -- Friday, 8 October 2010, at 6:58 a.m.
    • Winning percentages with one man closed out
      David -- Friday, 8 October 2010, at 3:13 p.m.
    • RO using XGRoller+
      eXtreme Gammon -- Saturday, 9 October 2010, at 3:09 a.m.
      • 4 Ply Rollouts
        Stick -- Saturday, 9 October 2010, at 4:07 a.m.
        • Thanks a lot *NM*
          6stones -- Saturday, 9 October 2010, at 1:45 p.m.
        • 13 off,,, a little taste using XGR+
          neilkaz -- Saturday, 9 October 2010, at 6:39 p.m.
          • 13 off,,, a little taste using XGR+
            Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 10 October 2010, at 10:17 p.m.
            • 4 ply RO of cube
              neilkaz -- Monday, 11 October 2010, at 4:09 a.m.