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RO of that bad 4 cube pass

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 9 April 2010, at 3:03 p.m.

In Response To: Did the full-team consultation format work well? (Christian Munk-Christensen)

I agree that one of the World team members, at least, should have been ready calculations of what the TP is for this 4 cube and should have also been ready to state what the Danes TP is on the potential recube to 8. Then, perhaps they'd have seen the clear take ATS.




is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 59
14 point match
pip: 92
score: 6

is Player 1
XGID=-Ba-CBBCB----------Abc-ed-:1:1:1:D:6:0:0:14:10
double to 4 take ?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 79.45% (G: 3.80% B: 0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.55% (G: 1.00% B: 0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.63% (G: 3.79% B: 0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.37% (G: 0.96% B: 0.01%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.613
Redouble:+1.107
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.858
Redouble/Take:+0.837 (-0.021)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.142)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.004 (+0.854...+0.861)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.004 (+0.833...+0.841)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 18 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.13, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Here's a modified position to help show the rather low practical TP ATS and the large effective recube value. I have to admit that while I think I could find the take OTB in the initial position, I doubt that I could in the 2nd position below.




is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 57
14 point match
pip: 80
score: 6

is Player 1
XGID=-Ba-BCCCB------------e-ed-:1:1:1:D:6:0:0:14:10
double to 4 take ?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 82.26% (G: 2.55% B: 0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.74% (G: 0.48% B: 0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 82.42% (G: 2.38% B: 0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.58% (G: 0.46% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.664
Redouble:+1.220
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.868 (-0.093)
Redouble/Take:+0.960
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.040)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.002 (+0.866...+0.869)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.004 (+0.956...+0.964)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.13, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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