Bagai-type Play in Finals at Ohio

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Bagai-type Play in Finals at Ohio – Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 31 March 2015, at 9:14 p.m.

In Response To: Bagai-type Play in Finals at Ohio (Taper_Mike)

The reason to "Bagai" (point on head, fill in a gap, leave a shot) is to juice up the gammons at the expense of a small increased cost of losing.
Here the gammons are sky high anyway so there is almost no benefit to the Bagai maneuver. On the other hand, the losing chances are miniscule also. So while incorrect, the play isn't terrrible. But the concept is bad. I am volunteering a shot (more risk) for no benefit (it is a gammon anyway).
Bill Calton’s remarks are spot on, but they only tell half the story. Bill pointed out that he need not have played the “Bagai” because he is already winning an almost sure gammon. The rollout confirms that. The “Bagai” is the DMP play, winning more games, but it wins 4% fewer gammons.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 54

Unlimited Game

pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=------E-F----B-----bddAbbA:1:1:-1:31:0:0:0:0:10
White to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 4/3* 3/Off eq: +1.7590
Player:
Opponent: 94.80% (G:87.49% B:1.15%)
5.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0022 (+1.7568...+1.7613) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 20 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 6/3* 4/3 eq: +1.7368 (-0.0222)
Player:
Opponent: 95.64% (G:83.64% B:0.68%)
4.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0018 (+1.7350...+1.7386) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 43 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59279099
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2015-Mar-31
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000995.xgp

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The same is true when the opponent is already on the roof. As above, the “Bagai” wins 4% fewer gammons:

White is Bill Calton

score: 0
pip: 54

Unlimited Game

pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is David Rockwell

XGID=------E-F----B-----bdd-bbB:1:1:-1:31:0:0:0:0:10
White to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 4/Off eq: +1.7593
Player:
Opponent: 94.75% (G:87.54% B:1.16%)
5.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0021 (+1.7572...+1.7614) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 09 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 5/4 5/2 eq: +1.7467 (-0.0126)
Player:
Opponent: 95.04% (G:86.12% B:0.70%)
4.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0019 (+1.7448...+1.7486) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 00 second
3. Rollout¹ 6/3 4/3 eq: +1.7368 (-0.0225)
Player:
Opponent: 95.68% (G:83.61% B:0.66%)
4.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0020 (+1.7347...+1.7388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 5/1 eq: +1.7247 (-0.0346)
Player:
Opponent: 94.19% (G:85.94% B:0.73%)
5.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0021 (+1.7226...+1.7268) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 17 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17732424
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2015-Mar-30
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000995b.xgp

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The other half of the story is safety. The future danger represented by a gap may be a good reason to fill it while your board is still strong, and the opponent is toothless. It is too easy, however, to jump over a gap on the 3pt. That one is not worth filling. Move it down to the 2pt, and you have a good reason for the “Bagai:”

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 54

Unlimited Game

pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=------E-F----B-----bdbd-bB:1:1:-1:41:0:0:0:0:10
White to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 6/2 3/2 eq: +1.7227
Player:
Opponent: 95.23% (G:83.33% B:0.73%)
4.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0021 (+1.7206...+1.7248) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 07 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 5/4 5/1 eq: +1.6894 (-0.0333)
Player:
Opponent: 93.17% (G:84.49% B:1.08%)
6.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0025 (+1.6869...+1.6919) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 12 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 5/Off eq: +1.6733 (-0.0494)
Player:
Opponent: 92.51% (G:84.02% B:1.64%)
7.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0028 (+1.6706...+1.6761) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 16 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17732424
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2015-Mar-30
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000995a.xgp

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Put the blot back in the gap, and it becomes a blunder not fill it in. The top 2 plays both involve a loose hit. The safe 5/off is a third-best double-whopper!

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 54

Unlimited Game

pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=------E-F----B-----bdbdAbA:1:1:-1:41:0:0:0:0:10
White to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 6/2* 3/2 eq: +1.7214
Player:
Opponent: 95.22% (G:83.19% B:0.72%)
4.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0020 (+1.7194...+1.7234) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 04 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 5/1 3/2* eq: +1.6101 (-0.1113)
Player:
Opponent: 91.54% (G:81.13% B:0.79%)
8.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0027 (+1.6074...+1.6128) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 53 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 5/Off eq: +1.5249 (-0.1965)
Player:
Opponent: 89.53% (G:76.14% B:2.00%)
10.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0028 (+1.5220...+1.5277) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 13 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 5/4 5/1 eq: +1.5239 (-0.1975)
Player:
Opponent: 90.04% (G:75.45% B:1.40%)
9.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0026 (+1.5213...+1.5265) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 56 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/2* eq: +1.5224 (-0.1991)
Player:
Opponent: 90.52% (G:74.96% B:0.64%)
9.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0030 (+1.5193...+1.5254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 17 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59279099
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2015-Mar-30
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000995c.xgp

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Here are some other positions where the “Bagai” is discussed:
Bearing in against deuce+ (Rollout)
Posted By: Jeremy Bagai <jeremy@fortuitouspress.com>
Date: Friday, 3 June 2011, at 7:50 a.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=97726
Bearoff against contact
Posted By: Jeremy Bagai <jeremy@fortuitouspress.com>
Date: Sunday, 19 June 2011, at 7:05 a.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=98638
I seem not to be learning
NEEDS ROLLOUT
Posted By: Jeremy Bagai <jeremy@fortuitouspress.com>
Date: Tuesday, 28 June 2011, at 10:59 p.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=99269
Mochy's Variant - I seem not to be learning
Posted By: Mochy <mochy@backgammon.gr.jp>
Date: Wednesday, 29 June 2011, at 5:16 p.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=99296
Position for Jeremy Bagai and Everyone Else
Posted by: Paul Weaver
Date: 2012-01-21
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=113593
Position for Jeremy Bagai and Everyone Else
Posted By: Paul Weaver <bgopenings@aol.com>
Date: Sunday, 12 February 2012, at 10:25 a.m.
NOT A BAGAI
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=122299
The Jeremy Bagai Position Makes Another Appearance
OTB and RO
Posted By: neilkaz <neilkaz@earthlink.net>
Date: Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 4:47 p.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=116999
Jeremy misses another Jeremy-type position
Posted By: Jeremy Bagai <jeremy@fortuitouspress.com>
Date: Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 7:13 p.m.
NOT A BAGAI BECAUSE IT DOES NOT SWITCH POINTS
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=117211
Bagai in the House? Rollouts
Posted By: Stick <checkmugged@yahoo.com>
Date: Saturday, 5 May 2012, at 2:39 a.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=121293
More Bagai-esque Play?
Posted By: Stick <checkmugged@yahoo.com>
Date: Wednesday, 23 May 2012, at 3:27 p.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=122430
More Bagai?
Posted By: Stick <checkmugged@yahoo.com>
Date: Thursday, 7 June 2012, at 7:46 p.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=123579
Daily Quiz 5/3
Posted By: Daily Quiz <raindrops_33_17@hotmail.com>
Date: Saturday, 2 June 2012, at 7:47 a.m.
POSITION2 – NOT A BAGAI
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=123892
Rollout: Is this Bagaic?
Posted By: David Levy <trictrac@sbcglobal.net>
Date: Thursday, 28 June 2012, at 4:07 a.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=124910
I miss a Bagai position in LA
Posted By: Jeremy Bagai <jeremy@fortuitouspress.com>
Date: Tuesday, 17 July 2012, at 11:54 p.m.
NOT A BAGAI POSITION
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=126381
I missed a Bagai position while reading this thread
Posted By: Michael Nielsen <turbomn1@yahoo.com>
Date: Thursday, 19 July 2012, at 11:38 a.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=126465
Falafel vs. Bagai? — 4-ply XG2 Rollout
Posted By: Taper_Mike <Taper_Mike@yahoo.com>
Date: Monday, 6 August 2012, at 7:08 a.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=127504
Rollout: Stick vs. Bagai?
Posted By: Timothy Chow <tchow8@hotmail.com>
Date: Monday, 27 August 2012, at 11:40 p.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=128694
To Bagai or not to Bagai
Stick
Date: 2013-04-06
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=140016
Bagai Position Again
BAGAI PLAY IS 2ND BEST
Posted By: Mochy <mochy@backgammon.gr.jp>
Date: Friday, 3 May 2013, at 6:57 p.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=141295
Bagai, anyone? — Rollout
Posted By: Taper_Mike <Taper_Mike@yahoo.com>
Date: Sunday, 23 June 2013, at 9:39 a.m.
BAGAI PLAY IS 5TH-BEST, TRAILING BY 0.0314
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=143526
Bagai Position Arises In My Match Against Bagai!!!
Posted By: Paul Weaver <bgopenings@aol.com>
Date: Tuesday, 17 September 2013, at 12:16 a.m.
NOT A TRUE BAGAI POSITION – LACKS A SAFE ALTERNATIVE
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=146721
Anybody seen da guy?
Posted By: Taper_Mike <Taper_Mike@yahoo.com>
Date: Saturday, 1 November 2014, at 6:04 a.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=168540
Bagai Position after a Late Hit
Posted By: Taper_Mike <Taper_Mike@yahoo.com>
Date: Thursday, 8 January 2015, at 7:43 p.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=171670
Bagai-type Play in Finals at Ohio
Posted By: Taper_Mike <Taper_Mike@yahoo.com>
Date: Monday, 30 March 2015, at 4:10 a.m.
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=176748
Mike

Messages In This Thread

Bagai-type Play in Finals at Ohio
Taper_Mike -- Monday, 30 March 2015, at 4:10 a.m.
- Bagai-type Play in Finals at Ohio
  Stick -- Monday, 30 March 2015, at 4:15 a.m.
  - Bagai-type Play in Finals at Ohio
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 30 March 2015, at 7:47 a.m.
    - Bagai-type Play in Finals at Ohio
      Stick -- Monday, 30 March 2015, at 7:55 a.m.
    - Bagai-type Play in Finals at Ohio
      Stick -- Monday, 30 March 2015, at 3:35 p.m.
- Bagai-type Play in Finals at Ohio
  Bill Calton -- Monday, 30 March 2015, at 3:30 p.m.
- Same position with a blot on the 3pt
  Taper_Mike -- Monday, 30 March 2015, at 9:00 p.m.
- Bagai-type Play in Finals at Ohio
  Bill Calton -- Tuesday, 31 March 2015, at 4:37 p.m.
- Bagai-type Play in Finals at Ohio – Rollout
  Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 31 March 2015, at 9:14 p.m.

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